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id string | question string | category string | url string | market_prob float64 | oracle_prob float64 | edge float64 | confidence float64 | signal string | model string | backtest_acc float64 | auc float64 | modelability int64 | volume int64 | liquidity int64 | end_date timestamp[us] | captured_at string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
601819 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.115 | 0.1353 | 0.0203 | 0.8517 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 77 | 21,986,305 | 1,394,103 | 2026-10-05T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5234660 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-12 | 0.959 | 0.9791 | 0.0201 | 0.8633 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 926,177 | 356,381 | 2026-10-13T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5405591 | Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/val-nrg-loud-2026-10-10 | 0.315 | 0.3505 | 0.0355 | 0.749 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 79 | 550,785 | 53,774 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
601826 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.8845 | 0.8835 | -0.001 | 0.9037 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 76 | 19,164,566 | 860,712 | 2026-10-05T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
2772194 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-shakhtar-donetsk-win-the-2026-27-uefa-champions-league-championship-20260701202025578 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8788 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 28,535,858 | 434,428 | 2027-05-30T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5434057 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Dalibor Svrcina vs Tomas Etcheverry | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-svrcina-etcheve-2026-10-09 | 0.665 | 0.6596 | -0.0054 | 0.7773 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 80 | 344,684 | 62,295 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5434053 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper Ruud | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-bu-ruud-2026-10-09 | 0.195 | 0.2205 | 0.0255 | 0.7892 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 76 | 307,937 | 242,674 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
2589811 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324030 | 0.0045 | 0.01 | 0.0055 | 0.874 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 5,853,377 | 381,817 | 2026-10-29T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5130978 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15 | 0.915 | 0.9286 | 0.0136 | 0.8037 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 842,003 | 273,905 | 2026-10-16T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
562803 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-republican-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections | 0.095 | 0.0907 | -0.0043 | 0.8546 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 7,026,110 | 2,640,226 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5009094 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/epl-che-bou-2026-10-10-che | 0.535 | 0.5575 | 0.0225 | 0.809 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 81 | 281,972 | 513,729 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5457982 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-ty-ts8-2026-10-10 | 0.625 | 0.6428 | 0.0178 | 0.8158 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 250,821 | 585,632 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5457957 | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-aur1-vit-2026-10-10 | 0.235 | 0.2386 | 0.0036 | 0.8087 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 235,950 | 255,289 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
630964 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-republicans-win-the-texas-senate-race-in-2026 | 0.375 | 0.3832 | 0.0082 | 0.8169 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 1,651,509 | 435,156 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
2243298 | Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-brooklyn-nets-win-the-2027-nba-finals | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8682 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 930,862 | 417,980 | 2027-07-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
4906127 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026 | 0.055 | 0.0564 | 0.0014 | 0.807 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 2,718,700 | 237,405 | 2026-10-16T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
4641065 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31-20260917 | 0.755 | 0.7664 | 0.0114 | 0.7905 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 1,843,817 | 185,220 | 2026-10-31T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
2589810 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324029 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8877 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 5,790,868 | 975,696 | 2026-10-29T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
560317 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027-346 | 0.0275 | 0.0227 | -0.0048 | 0.8833 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 24,824,558 | 703,634 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5427286 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tabilo-busta-2026-10-09 | 0.58 | 0.6011 | 0.0211 | 0.5835 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 186,299 | 94,726 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
2589812 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031 | 0.835 | 0.8557 | 0.0207 | 0.8085 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 8,459,553 | 597,751 | 2026-10-29T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5009005 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/epl-ars-lee-2026-10-10-ars | 0.685 | 0.7071 | 0.0221 | 0.8033 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 197,162 | 516,286 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5461095 | Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Anna Bondar vs Lois Boisson | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/wta-bondar-boisson-2026-10-10 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8594 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 169,227 | 339,449 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5013791 | Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/epl-ars-lee-2026-10-10-spread-away-1pt5 | 0.0255 | 0.0277 | 0.0022 | 0.8156 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 165,523 | 70,443 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5330760 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-8-october-10-2026-65-89 | 0.0005 | 0.0157 | 0.0152 | 0.8118 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 188,191 | 63,243 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5405589 | Valorant: NRG vs LOUD - Map 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/val-nrg-loud-2026-10-10-game1 | 0.105 | 0.1489 | 0.0439 | 0.7191 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 157,032 | 43,025 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5427270 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-fils-kotov-2026-10-09 | 0.983 | 0.99 | 0.007 | 0.8177 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 151,872 | 124,302 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
665374 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 | 0.155 | 0.1566 | 0.0016 | 0.8359 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 73,059,742 | 948,155 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
562802 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections | 0.905 | 0.9282 | 0.0232 | 0.8255 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 8,842,468 | 2,661,268 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
608565 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.0255 | 0.0203 | -0.0052 | 0.849 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 4,262,607 | 211,731 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
562831 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/2026-balance-of-power-r-senate-r-house-537 | 0.085 | 0.0809 | -0.0041 | 0.8435 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 6,887,226 | 2,435,597 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5238649 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-86k-on-october-10-2026 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8106 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 147,780 | 52,967 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
630963 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-democrats-win-the-texas-senate-race-in-2026 | 0.625 | 0.6442 | 0.0192 | 0.7919 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 1,450,457 | 344,683 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.085Z |
5081860 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-october-31 | 0.0125 | 0.01 | -0.0025 | 0.8541 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 487,052 | 246,910 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5461088 | Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Claire Liu | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/wta-tararud-liu-2026-10-10 | 0.845 | 0.8654 | 0.0204 | 0.782 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 120,149 | 246,029 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
559703 | Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-chris-van-hollen-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8721 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 1,480,406 | 663,889 | 2028-11-08T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5238644 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-84k-on-october-10-2026 | 0.0295 | 0.0376 | 0.0081 | 0.805 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 126,259 | 43,430 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
608547 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.604 | 0.6022 | -0.0018 | 0.764 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 82 | 5,382,089 | 94,058 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
2589814 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324033 | 0.0035 | 0.01 | 0.0065 | 0.8608 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 4,257,005 | 405,721 | 2026-10-29T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
703257 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-789-924-249 | 0.0305 | 0.0251 | -0.0054 | 0.8781 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 40,903,659 | 783,237 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
679022 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-david-lisnard-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election | 0.1255 | 0.1222 | -0.0033 | 0.8557 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 4,386,758 | 289,757 | 2027-04-19T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5009015 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/epl-ars-lee-2026-10-10-lee | 0.105 | 0.1029 | -0.0021 | 0.8176 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 116,118 | 532,733 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
4866154 | Spread: Patriots (-3.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-lv-ne-2026-10-11-spread-home-3pt5 | 0.495 | 0.514 | 0.019 | 0.8115 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 80 | 121,146 | 829,422 | 2026-10-11T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
561998 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ivanka-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | 0.0095 | 0.01 | 0.0005 | 0.8781 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 8,745,891 | 654,779 | 2028-11-08T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
562830 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/2026-balance-of-power-r-senate-d-house-444 | 0.295 | 0.2997 | 0.0047 | 0.8401 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 3,328,728 | 2,452,823 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5330762 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-8-october-10-2026-115-139 | 0.028 | 0.0401 | 0.0121 | 0.7348 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 121,604 | 4,046 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5238625 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-74k-on-october-10-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8334 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 103,361 | 160,062 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
629040 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-nithya-raman-win-the-2026-los-angeles-mayoral-election-876 | 0.4895 | 0.5233 | 0.0338 | 0.7725 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 88 | 2,651,990 | 156,781 | 2026-06-03T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5238632 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-october-10-2026 | 0.999 | 0.99 | -0.009 | 0.7928 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 123,092 | 38,810 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
608540 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.0245 | 0.0195 | -0.005 | 0.8386 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 3,413,421 | 166,448 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
608545 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.3265 | 0.3535 | 0.027 | 0.7995 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 79 | 3,838,842 | 83,523 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5470720 | Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-hotu-fnc-2026-10-10 | 0.485 | 0.5006 | 0.0156 | 0.7443 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 93,576 | 50,240 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5098738 | Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 43.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cfb-duke-gtech-2026-10-10-total-43pt5 | 0.535 | 0.5479 | 0.0129 | 0.7476 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 111,332 | 51,673 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5097979 | Spread: Texas (-7.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cfb-tx-okl-2026-10-10-spread-away-7pt5 | 0.495 | 0.5128 | 0.0178 | 0.7791 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 76 | 95,394 | 230,796 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
561244 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0055 | 0.01 | 0.0045 | 0.8819 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 14,016,197 | 980,803 | 2028-11-08T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5180509 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-october-31-396 | 0.0115 | 0.01 | -0.0015 | 0.8316 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 545,570 | 112,806 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5013806 | Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/epl-ars-lee-2026-10-10-total-0pt5 | 0.945 | 0.9652 | 0.0202 | 0.7481 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 85,364 | 74,104 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
3128888 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696 | 0.155 | 0.1623 | 0.0073 | 0.7758 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 4,234,672 | 135,984 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5015038 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lal-bar-get-2026-10-10-bar | 0.895 | 0.9191 | 0.0241 | 0.7839 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 199,876 | 375,833 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
3491459 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026 | 0.0235 | 0.0182 | -0.0053 | 0.8338 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 903,413 | 147,864 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
562828 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house-949 | 0.615 | 0.6358 | 0.0208 | 0.8211 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 77 | 5,236,701 | 2,686,334 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5330763 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-8-october-10-2026-140-164 | 0.001 | 0.01 | 0.009 | 0.7649 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 109,712 | 13,506 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
4843321 | Spread: Broncos (-3.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-den-lac-2026-10-11-spread-away-3pt5 | 0.515 | 0.531 | 0.016 | 0.7766 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 79 | 97,389 | 204,062 | 2026-10-11T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5170744 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-65k-in-october-2026 | 0.0245 | 0.0204 | -0.0041 | 0.8221 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 367,260 | 92,512 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5164765 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/israel-accuses-iranproxies-of-plane-stabbing-incident-by-oct-31 | 0.065 | 0.0674 | 0.0024 | 0.7608 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 799,831 | 64,741 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5311917 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 October 5-11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ethereum-reach-2800-october-5-11-2026 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.006 | 0.7857 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 48 | 132,254 | 29,332 | 2026-10-12T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5311871 | Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 5-11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-78k-october-5-11-2026 | 0.007 | 0.01 | 0.003 | 0.8056 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 204,200 | 58,637 | 2026-10-12T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5447182 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms | 0.725 | 0.7462 | 0.0212 | 0.758 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 75,478 | 127,454 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
4061550 | Spread: Jets (-2.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-cle-nyj-2026-10-11-spread-home-2pt5 | 0.505 | 0.5099 | 0.0049 | 0.8082 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 90 | 85,967 | 512,614 | 2026-10-11T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5311846 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 5-11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-90k-october-5-11-2026 | 0.0045 | 0.01 | 0.0055 | 0.8057 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 126,639 | 53,108 | 2026-10-12T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5427280 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Vallejo | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-vallejo-2026-10-09 | 0.665 | 0.6827 | 0.0177 | 0.7728 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 68,352 | 206,772 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5009102 | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/epl-che-bou-2026-10-10-bou | 0.225 | 0.2255 | 0.0005 | 0.807 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 70,189 | 418,043 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
559651 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027 | 0.0285 | 0.0236 | -0.0049 | 0.8688 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 14,705,123 | 692,596 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
701501 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55000-by-december-31-2026-527-627-868-745-188-361-314-673-612-946-821-624-855-557-684-381-884-939-182-939-516 | 0.095 | 0.0923 | -0.0027 | 0.7914 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 6,732,980 | 245,516 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
682707 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-yair-lapid-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8282 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 1,902,536 | 155,632 | 2026-10-28T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5238640 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-82k-on-october-10-2026 | 0.9805 | 0.9732 | -0.0073 | 0.7991 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 76,420 | 45,499 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5330761 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-8-october-10-2026-90-114 | 0.9685 | 0.9455 | -0.023 | 0.6787 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 100,307 | 4,577 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
562832 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/2026-balance-of-power-other-131 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8457 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 2,539,516 | 324,382 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
3399450 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by-october-31 | 0.0175 | 0.0122 | -0.0053 | 0.8059 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 530,023 | 92,354 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5430342 | Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/val-g21-vit-2026-10-10 | 0.535 | 0.5506 | 0.0156 | 0.7862 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 64,445 | 346,968 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
630805 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 | 0.715 | 0.7334 | 0.0184 | 0.7704 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 908,152 | 207,732 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5345622 | Spread: Oregon State (-15.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cfb-sdst-oregst-2026-10-10-spread-home-15pt5 | 0.515 | 0.5293 | 0.0143 | 0.7443 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 59,331 | 61,111 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
3399459 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31 | 0.865 | 0.8756 | 0.0106 | 0.7603 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 1,613,702 | 100,889 | 2026-10-31T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5098942 | Spread: Oregon (-11.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cfb-ucla-ore-2026-10-10-spread-home-11pt5 | 0.455 | 0.4766 | 0.0216 | 0.7793 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 80 | 67,089 | 346,436 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5123857 | Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-texas-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2027 | 0.175 | 0.1773 | 0.0023 | 0.8114 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 341,849 | 585,780 | 2028-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5238636 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-october-10-2026 | 0.9975 | 0.99 | -0.0075 | 0.7995 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 84,195 | 49,646 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5311866 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-80k-october-5-11-2026 | 0.024 | 0.0335 | 0.0095 | 0.7891 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 219,326 | 45,244 | 2026-10-12T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5434051 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Alex Michelsen | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-zandsch-michels-2026-10-09 | 0.355 | 0.3664 | 0.0114 | 0.7719 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 55,948 | 172,380 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
567621 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027 | 0.0225 | 0.0172 | -0.0053 | 0.8645 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 43,795,895 | 647,661 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
3501951 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765 | 0.075 | 0.0747 | -0.0003 | 0.7968 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 699,679 | 303,879 | 2026-12-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5170745 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-62pt5k-in-october-2026 | 0.0195 | 0.0147 | -0.0048 | 0.8171 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 417,445 | 93,273 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5447714 | W50 Lexington, SC: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/itf-carnic1-alarco1-2026-10-09 | 0.999 | 0.9677 | -0.0313 | 0.7375 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 54,851 | 13,721 | 2026-10-16T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5427284 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-baez-vachero-2026-10-09 | 0.245 | 0.2532 | 0.0082 | 0.7657 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 61,826 | 118,960 | 2026-10-17T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5238653 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-88k-on-october-10-2026 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.7866 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 81,093 | 51,262 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
3758964 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31 | 0.055 | 0.0519 | -0.0031 | 0.7849 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 1,180,522 | 213,634 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5299844 | Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan T20s: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/crint-pak-lka-2026-10-11 | 0.695 | 0.7119 | 0.0169 | 0.6913 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 52,357 | 8,455 | 2026-10-18T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
4824600 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-aleksandar-vucic-united-serbia-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-serbian-parliamentary-election | 0.615 | 0.627 | 0.012 | 0.7599 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 77 | 335,367 | 112,761 | 2026-10-25T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
3501950 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583 | 0.0125 | 0.01 | -0.0025 | 0.8442 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 1,989,953 | 262,589 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
4936098 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-wti-reach-150-in-october-2026 | 0.007 | 0.01 | 0.003 | 0.8103 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 110,583 | 86,640 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
5473050 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-mouz-ts7-2026-10-10 | 0.415 | 0.4271 | 0.0121 | 0.7754 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 50,272 | 214,392 | 2026-10-10T00:00:00 | 2026-10-10T09:58:01.086Z |
THE ORACLE — Polymarket predictions
Live predictions for Polymarket markets, produced by THE ORACLE — an autonomous agent funded by $ORACLE pump.fun creator fees. Each row is a baseline-model forecast over live orderbook signals (momentum, microstructure, liquidity).
predictions.json/predictions.csv— 100 markets, refreshed each agent cycle.- Columns: question, category, market_prob, oracle_prob, edge, confidence, signal, model, backtest_acc, auc, modelability, volume, liquidity, end_date, captured_at.
Not financial advice.
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